Ithaki

Greece, although used to warm summers, faces increased health risks from heatwaves. Forecasts estimate that by 2050, air temperature could 3.4°C higher bringing 15–20 more heatwave days per year [1]. Vulnerable groups, particularly the elderly with chronic conditions, are at higher risk during heatwaves [2].

Recent extreme rainfall events have triggered flash floods in Greece. For example, during Storm Ballos in 2021, the island of Ithaca received 343mm of rain in 24 hours [3]. Although Greece typically experiences mild, wet winters and hot, dry summers, climate change is expected to drive more severe heatwaves, droughts, but also high-intensity rainfalls [4]. Increasing seasonal differences, such as concentrated rainfall during winter, are projected to raise short-interval precipitation in Ithaki by 25–30%, intensifying flash flood risks [5,6].

Wildfires have long been a challenge in Greece. In the summer of 2023, one of the worst wildfire events burned over 140,000 hectares [7]. As climate change alters evaporation and temperature patterns, the number of days with high wildfire risk is expected to increase between 15% and 70% by 2050, largely due to lower rainfall [8]. In a very high emissions scenario, the impacts of wildfires could become much more severe.